Costs of war
We don’t have an idea yet of the costs of this war, whether $90 billion or $1.2 trillion. Most likely, a figure in between, although I consider that once you take into account further expenses needed to appease post-war enemies, the cost might be closer to the high estimate.
Yale professor -- and war opponent -- William D. Nordhaus, in a study published late last year, said a short and successful war for the United States and its allies could have a positive impact on oil markets and the economy that would shave about $57 billion from the total costs of the war.This economy can not take that hit, and not even the oil from Iraq is going to help it.
On the other hand, in his worst-case scenario, assuming the war and post-war period go very badly, then the shocks to the oil market and economy could add a staggering $1.2 trillion to the total bill.
Let’s be cautious here, and remember that this war is going to be fought against an adversary that has had time to prepare itself, that has learned from its previous mistakes, and that, unlike on previous occasion, has nothing to lose now- Hussein is actually safer now than as an exiled head of state, somewhere where he would most likely be a perfect target for assassination.
Bush has made it clear: leave now, or face war. Therefore, we have war.
Saddam Hussein is not the cause of war! Once he leaves (or dies) there will be a power structure that he built, one that will not be easily overtaken, and one that will cost to displace and replace with the “perfect” American ideal democratic regime. We are talking about a possible occupation during a period of several years, specially of there is the notion of taking in oil to pay for the expenses of the war and “reconstruction”. We have to take into consideration also the costs of protecting the USA and its allies, since it is a dead certainty that an attack on Iraq will trigger anti-American sentiments allover the globe, justifying much more direct and dirty retaliations, possible allowing for terrorism on more places. You know, GloboCop (for one of the covers of Time Magazine during he Gulf War) can only be in so many places at the same time, and with limited resources in the years to come, it is going to be a certainty that low intensity conflicts are going to increase all over the globe, specially in unindustrialized or poor countries.
It may be possible that none of those reach the shores of the USA, highly shielded by two oceans and an ever growing battery of walls and high tech checks, but it is definitely going to impinge on its allies, specially those with terribly porous borders - Spain, for example – or with weak allegiances – Venezuela comes to mind.
And what is Bush or whomever his successor is going to do? Police the whole world? Identify Mohammed from Mohamed among the billion Muslims everywhere?
And that is even before thinking about North Korea.