Attacking Iraq via Shock and Awe
Prentiss found this link to an explanation of the Shock and Awe strategy that the White House seems to be considering to attack Iraq: 400 to 2000 missiles during the first 48 hours, completely demolishing the enemy's infrastructure, while utterly demoralizing its army.
The book, which is online, says in chapter two:
To the degree that this example of achieving Shock and Awe is directed against military targets, it requires skill if not brilliance in execution, or nearly total incompetence in the adversary. The adversary, finding front lines broken and the rear vulnerable, panics, surrenders, or both. Hitler's campaign in France and Holland and the seizure of the Dutch forts and the occupation of Crete in 1940 are obvious illustrations. The use of Special Operations forces in significant numbers is an adjunct to imposing this level of Shock and Awe.
So you have to have an excellently executed plan, and/or an incompetent enemy. Seems too much to ask.
It is safe to assume that, since the government has leaked its intentions to use this strategy, Saddam would use a decentralized chain of command with a "dead man switch" reaction plan: If you don't hear from us in the next hour, destroy all the oil wells.
What then? It is only shock if you don't know it is coming!
Comments
Thanks for the plug, Camilo.
I think there's a tag or two that got left open in your HTML for this item -- in my browser, at least, your whole paragraph is highlighted and a couple of URLs are messed up. No big deal but I thought I'd point it out.
Also, the numbers I've seen were 400 to 800 missiles in the first 48 hours, not 2000. That still works out to one missile every 4 to 8 minutes or so. The numbers may be entirely fanciful -- I didn't see them in my quick glance through the Shock and Awe book, just in other news reports that don't make it clear where they come from.
Posted by: Prentiss Riddle | February 4, 2003 10:19 AM
I saw the articles in the Guardian, the Sydney Morning Herald, and the CS Monitor. This is the one that quotes Harlan Ullman, who says "You'll see simultaneous attacks of hundreds of warheads, maybe thousands...". But then goes on to explain that S&A was the same trategy used in the Gulf War, where in the first day the US launched 325 cruise missiles, and struck 254 targets on the following three days. So, nothing new.
Posted by: Camilo | February 5, 2003 1:19 AM